Decaturight

Strange poll results

The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll is typically strange.

It's little changed from their last; before Obama was ahead 53-43; now they have Obama ahead 53-44.

But since the last poll, McCain has improved eight precent on "who better understands economic problems." On whether McCain would lead the country in a new direction or the same as Bush, it's split, 49-48. Last time it was 52-45. And yet, as we saw, barely any improvement for McCain overall.

Once again, I'm supposed to believe that McCain winning most of the Republicans (more on this below) and Obama winning most of the Democrats, and the independents splitting 48 percent to 47 percent is going to yield an Obama win by nine percent.

NRO | 10/20/2008

Developments & discussion for Tuesday, 10/21/2008

The presidential race in Florida is now essentially even. The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds John McCain ahead of Barack Obama 49% to 48%.

Support for the GOP nominee is at the highest level in the past five polls of the state. Last week, Obama held a 51% to 46% lead. He led by seven points in the Fox/Rasmussen poll the week before.

The tighter race in Florida is consistent with national polling, which has tightened up over the past week.

Rasmussen

John McCain now has a two-point lead on Barack Obama in Ohio, 49% to 47%, in the latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state. A week ago Obama was ahead by two points, his first lead in Ohio since tracking of the race began in February.

The current poll finds McCain with his highest level of support since mid-September.

Rasmussen

The latest Battleground Tracking Poll has John McCain pulling within one-point of Barack Obama at 48%-47%! That represents a dramatic turnaround for McCain, who trailed in the Battleground Poll by 13-points just one week ago at 53%-40%.

The pendulum seems to be swinging back toward McCain, despite the MSM's attempt to paint the race as over.

Joe Biden has been pulled out of the game and is sitting on the bench today, back home in DE, following his fumble Sunday (see post below).

A pizza place in Michigan is giving free pizzas in exchange for McCain campaign signs. [Fox Video]

Seen in Decatur yesterday: A BO tee shirt with his first name spelled "BARRACK." It was a different design than this one, which is also misspelled.

 

Gallup poll of likely voters, 10/14/2008

Source

When this is adjusted for the probability more minorities and young people will vote this time, the gap widens back to 51%-45% [chart], closer to other polls.
 

Developments & discussion for Friday, 10/17/2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 46%. These figures reflect a remarkably stable race in which Obama has enjoyed a four-to-eight point advantage for twenty-two straight days. The last time McCain was up by even a single point was one month ago today (see trends).

Rasmussen Reports data indicates that Obama currently has the edge in every state won by John Kerry four years ago. However, of the states won by George Bush, McCain is trailing in four and five others are considered a toss-up. As a result, Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 300-174.

Rasmussen

AP has an article out saying the voters are souring on McCain, but Rush Limbaugh points out the AP poll (in pdf) now has Obama 44%, McCaain 42%. Rush points out Obama can't get above 48% on average of all the polls.

The Obama campaign and the MSM is out to destroy Joe the Plumber. If only the MSM would be so efficient in "vetting" Obama's relationships.  But, whatever they find out about Joe, many Americans have a problem with "spreading the wealth."

This just in: Supreme Court has ruled, in effect, Ohio doesn't have to verify all registrations. [Bloomberg]

Bookmark PollingReport.com to see the latest daily tracking polls.

Some in the Dem party are whispering BO's freudian slip away from the teleprompter ("share the wealth") may ultimately lead to his downfall. McCain needs to capitalize on it BIG TIME!

Rasmussen: Obama ahead by 7 points

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 51% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%. This seven-point advantage is the largest yet enjoyed by Obama during Election 2008 and is consistent with the stable lead he has enjoyed over the past week.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Obama leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain has the edge in states with 174 votes. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 255-185 (see Quick Campaign Overview).

Rasmussen

To use a football analogy, M/P is 7 points behind, late in the 4th quarter.

It needs a TD by Sarah, or a fumble by Joe, tonight.

Biden takes credit for success in Iraq

Sister Toldjah compares what Joe said Friday to what he's said, done, and not done in the past.

In a comment, harping back to Biden's palgiarism is the late 80s, Trish quips:

"I thought stealing credit for other people’s work was Biden’s stock-in-trade." 

Nobody seems to get to bent out of shape about anything Joe says. He's the clown on the O/B ticket, while Barack is the jester.

Rasmussen: Obama up by 5%

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. That’s the fourth straight day Obama has been at 50% and the fourth straight day McCain has been at either 44% or 45% (see trends).

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Obama leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain has the edge in states with 174 votes. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 255-227 (see Quick Campaign Overview).

New state polls will be released at 6:00 p.m. Eastern for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

Rasmussen

Those state polls be very telling.

Here's NBC's take from early this AM:

A Shift Towards Obama: As the slew of recent national and state 
polls suggest, our new map reflects a shift in Obama's direction. 
Four new states have been added to our Toss-up category: three red 
states (Florida, Indiana, and North Carolina) and one blue state 
(Pennsylvania). This gives Obama a 212-174 edge, after his more 
narrow 233-227 lead last week. What's interesting about these shifts 
is that while Obama is showing an improvement in fast-growing states 
(CO, FL, NV, NC, VA), he can't seem to put away the Northern tier 
states of slow-growing states (MI, PA, WI) or make progress in what 
some believe is still the all-important state of OH. BTW, how is it 
that, nationally, Obama's numbers are going up but he's struggling in 
big states like MI, PA and OH? Is this about Obama's inability to 
make the sale with older white voters? If he can change the 
electorates in these Southern and Western states, he can afford to 
lose two of those three industrial states, but it puts more pressure 
on him to win two of the following three: FL, NC and VA.

Rasmussen: Debate didn't change the relative standings

Five percent (5%) of voters say the debate changed how they would vote, but the changes were equally divided between Obama and McCain supporters. Saturday interviews for the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll—the first post debate interviews--suggest that little has changed following the debate and Obama retains a modest lead over McCain.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday—including the first day of post-debate polling—is unchanged. Barack Obama once again attracts 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%. This six-point advantage matches Obama’s biggest lead yet and marks the first time he has held such a lead for two-days running (see trends). Obama is now viewed favorably by 57% of voters, McCain by 55%.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Obama leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain has the edge in states with 174 votes. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 255-227 (see Quick Campaign Overview).

Rasmussen | Sun 9/28/2008

Rasmussen: Obama opens up 5 point lead

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. This is Obama’s biggest lead since his convention bounce peaked with a six-point advantage. In fact, on only two days since clinching the Democratic nomination in early June has Obama enjoyed a lead bigger than he has today (see trends).

It’s stunning to note how rapidly the dynamics of the campaign have changed. Two weeks ago, just before the Wall Street financial crunch became visible, McCain was up by three points in the aftermath of his convention. One week ago today, the candidates were even. Now, Obama’s lead is approaching new highs entering the final few weeks of the campaign.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Obama leading in states with 193 Electoral College votes while McCain has the edge in states with 174 votes. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 255-227 (see Quick Campaign Overview).

Rasmussen

New polls: McCain has slight lead in New Hampshire and Michigan

While Obama appears to be widening his lead in the national popular vote, two new polls out today shows McCain with slight leads in states which went for the Democrats in 2004.

McCain leads in New Hampshire by a 49%-47% margin.

And another poll in Michigan -- by the Marketing Resource Group of Lansing for the newsletter Inside Michigan Politics -- showed McCain leading Obama in the state, 46%-43%.

Blogs for John McCain

This may show that, while the MSM is doing its best to paint a scenario where Obama is pulling away as a result of the economy, he may only be gaining voters in states he already had in the bag.

Polls vary and the situation is very volatile