Battleground state polls released yesterday showed Obama leading in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. With these latest results, Rasmussen Reports has moved Florida from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democratic.”
In Missouri and North Carolina, the race remains a toss-up while McCain leads by five in his home state of Arizona. Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 313-174.
Results of likely voter tracking polls paint a picture of a much tighter race.
The problem is the pollsters really don't know how many young people and minorities will actually vote this year.
It appears McCain must count on the Electoral College:
NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd said McCain could still win the presidency by squeaking by in just enough states to get the 270 votes needed to snag an Electoral College victory.
“You throw all that together and it is conceivable that Obama wins the popular vote by three or four million and he loses the Electoral College,” Todd said, adding: “I don’t think it is a big chance.”
If there is a split result this year, it would be just the fifth time in U.S. history that the candidate receiving a plurality of the popular vote did not become president. Previous instances include the elections of 1824, 1876, 1888, and of course 2000.