Will it hinge on Florida and Ohio?

0245Z SAT 23OCT04. The Rant - Presidential Polls

The Rant has a page which shows the latests polls. At the top you'll see the combined results, for both the EC and and popular vote.

Any statistican will tell us that averaging inaccurate results will not produce more accurate results. But, at least the combined numbers reduce the impact of "fliers."

The last time I looked, Bush has opened a 3.75% lead in the popular vote (not all that important, as Gore learned - but it does show whether a candidate can hold his "solid" states) and a 260 to 211 EV lead. It's not much, but just as in football, I'd rather be up by 2 pts. and worrying about the other team driving downfield and kicking a field goal than behind 2 and HAVING to play catchup.

All else going as expected, the race appears to be coming down to Florida (the contested state last time) and Ohio (a state the Repubs have traditionally needed to win). For some scenarios of how those states will play out, see the continuation.

Kerry is hopping from issue to issue, trying to find SOMETHING which will regain the MO for him. One pundit said he's making a big strategic error in going back to the old Democratic socialist issues. This campaign is about who can best keep us secure from the wolves. The Dems are trying to say they are just poodles or puppies and the Bush campaign is trying to scare us into thinking they are a real threat.

Professor Wang's map of states in proportion to their EVs (also linked in the sidebar) and this this interactive map.">NYT interactive EV map show why the battleground states of OH and FL are so critical, and why both candidates and their surrogates are spending so much time in them down the stretch.

"Hindrocket" at Power Line evaluates the OH/FL combinations and permutations, based on certain assumptions re. other states.

Slate notes Bush was not in Ohio for 19 days, while Kerry is working the state hard. Matthew at Centerfield wonders if Rove is trying to win WITHOUT Ohio (something Republicans have not done historically). That strategy only has a prayer if Bush wins in Florida, and that's very iffy.

If you'd like to consider EV scenarios, the New York Times provides a calculator.

<-- The Rant poll page is linked under "Polls and Projections" near the top in the left sidebar, along with other links which show combined results, such as RCP. (See also the front page of The Rant, where you'll find some good articles, if you're a "Hyper Patriot" and "Ultra Right Wing Conservative" like myself.)

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